JAYA  Cyclone tropical intense, saison 2006/2007

Le système JAYA a été baptisé le 30.03.2007 à 06 UTC, il a atteint le stade de Cyclone tropical intense.
Le vent soutenu en mer a atteint 213 km/h avec des rafales à 264 km/h.
Cinq îles ont été touchées par ce système.


Jaya - Le 01 avril 2007 à 05:31 UTC - Jaya s'est affaibli - Dans le mur de l’œil, les vents en mer sont estimés à 176 km/h (sur 1 min) avec des rafales à 218 km/h. Source : Image provenant du site EUMETSAT

Les différents stades atteints par JAYA

Passez le pointeur de la souris sur le tableau pour afficher des détails le cas échéant.
: L'intensité augmente : L'intensité diminue
Stades atteints
Date de l'évolution
Zone perturbée
26.03.2007 à 06 UTC
L'intensité augmente
Perturbation tropicale
29.03.2007 à 12 UTC
L'intensité augmente
Tempête tropicale modérée
30.03.2007 à 06 UTC
L'intensité augmente
Forte tempête tropicale
30.03.2007 à 18 UTC
L'intensité augmente
Cyclone tropical
31.03.2007 à 00 UTC
L'intensité augmente
Cyclone tropical intense
31.03.2007 à 12 UTC
L'intensité augmente
Cyclone tropical
01.04.2007 à 06 UTC
L'intensité diminue
Cyclone tropical intense
02.04.2007 à 18 UTC
L'intensité augmente
Cyclone tropical
03.04.2007 à 00 UTC
L'intensité diminue
Dépression sur terre
03.04.2007 à 07:30 UTC
L'intensité diminue
Zone perturbée
04.04.2007 à 00 UTC
L'intensité diminue

Valeurs maximales

Valeurs maximales atteintes par JAYA, le 31 mars 2007 à 18 UTC  
Intensité sur l'échelle de Dvorak (nombre Ci) 6,0/8,0
Intensité sur la classification Australienne 4/5
Pression estimée au centre 927 mb
Vent moyen sur 10 mn (donnée Météo-France) 185 Km/h, 100 Kt
Vent moyen sur 1 mn (donnée Météo-France) 213 Km/h, 115 Kt
Vent moyen sur 1 mn (donnée JTWC) 222 Km/h, 120 Kt
Vent moyen sur 1 mn (intensité atteinte la plus probable) 213 Km/h, 115 Kt
Rafales 264 Km/h, 143 Kt

 

Tableau des impacts sur les îles

Îles
Distance et intensité correspondante
Date
Alerte
Détails
Saint Brandon 180 km au Nord, au stade de cyclone tropical intense (s'affaiblissant) 01.04.2007 à 04:30 UTC Aucune Pas de détail
Tromelin 80 km au Nord, au stade de cyclone tropical (stable) 02.04.2007 à 06 UTC Aucune
Madagascar Sur l'île côte Nord-Est, au stade de cyclone tropical (s'affaiblissant) 03.04.2007 à 07:30 UTC Avis de danger imminent
Les Comores et Mayotte 75 km au Sud de Mayotte, au stade de zone perturbée (s'affaiblissant) 04.04.2007 à 07 UTC Aucune Pas de détail
Mozambique Sur le continent, au stade de zone perturbée (stable) 06.04.2007 à 03 UTC Aucune Pas de détail
 

Conclusion

An area of sheared convection was first spotted on March 25 in the south central Indian Ocean. Four days later, Météo-France initiated warnings on the zone of disturbed weather, which had a partially-exposed low-level centre. At first, only irregular bulletins were issued, but as it organised rapidly it was upgraded to a tropical depression on March 30. Mauritius designated the system a moderate tropical storm at the same time, and named it Jaya, a name contributed by Zimbabwe. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a TCFA, before designating it Tropical Cyclone 22S later that same day. As it continued to organise, M-F upgraded it to a moderate tropical storm. It continued to strengthen, and Jaya was upgraded to a tropical cyclone early on March 31 by M-F. Rapid intensification continued, and Jaya quickly reached intense tropical cyclone status by the afternoon of the 31st, reaching a peak of 100 kt 930 hPa.

However, its small size meant that its structure and intensity easily fluctuated, and on April 1 it weakened slightly, with infrared imagery showing disorganisation as it encountered increased vertical wind shear, Jaya was downgraded to a tropical cyclone. As Jaya neared northeast Madagascar late on April 2, it was re-upgraded to an intense tropical cyclone after convection improved. However, Jaya lost strength just hours later as it was about to make landfall due to dry air and wind shear, and became disorganised.

Jaya made landfall at around 0800 UTC April 3 near Sambava, Madagascar at tropical cyclone intensity, with wind gusts near 180–200 km/h. It re-emerged over water in the Mozambique Channel as a highly-disorganised weak system lacking convection, and the final warning was issued.

On April 5, deep convection consolidated around the centre of Jaya's remnant circulation as the system reorganised, causing the JTWC to issue a new TCFA. Météo-France issued an advisory at 1200 UTC that afternoon on Tropical Disturbance 14R, but noted that vertical wind shear limited potential for significant intensification. Due to its proximity to the Mozambique coast, the system was affected by its terrain, but tracked just off the coast without making landfall. Over the next two days, Jaya came under heavy wind shear, and weakened considerably. However, it made another comeback on April 7, undergoing short-term rapid intensification, prompting Météo-France to issue a new advisory. However, convection became very weak and Jaya's circulation became fully exposed, and Météo-France again stopped advisories.

Reuters reports at least three people dead and many homes destroyed Several plantations were also ruined.

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