GAFILO  Cyclone tropical tr�s intense, saison 2003/2004

Le syst�me GAFILO a �t� baptis� le 03.03.2004 � 06 UTC, il a atteint le stade de Cyclone tropical tr�s intense.
Le vent soutenu en mer a atteint 278 km/h avec des rafales atteignant 345 km/h.
Quatre �les ont �t� touch�es par ce syst�me.


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Gafilo vient de franchir le stade supr�me de cyclone tropical TRES intense ! Le 06 mars 2004 à 06:55 UTC - Zoom sur l'oeil de Gafilo - Remarquez la régularité parfaite de l'oeil qui témoigne de la puissance extr�me des vents dans le mur de l'oeil ! Constatez également la hauteur impressionnante des cumulonimbus qui composent le mur de l'oeil. Source : Image provenant de NOAA / MODIS (NASA) - Satellite Terra -

Les différents stades atteints par GAFILO

Passez le pointeur de la souris sur le tableau pour afficher des d�tails le cas �ch�ant.
: L'intensit� augmente : L'intensit� diminue

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Stades atteints
Date de l'�volution
Perturbation tropicale
01.03.2004 � 06 UTC
L'intensit� augmente
D�pression tropicale
03.03.2004 � 00 UTC
L'intensit� augmente
Temp�te tropicale mod�r�e
03.03.2004 � 06 UTC
L'intensit� augmente
Forte temp�te tropicale
03.03.2004 � 12 UTC
L'intensit� augmente
Cyclone tropical
04.03.2004 � 12 UTC
L'intensit� augmente
Cyclone tropical intense
05.03.2004 � 09 UTC
L'intensit� augmente
Cyclone tropical tr�s intense
06.03.2004 � 00 UTC
L'intensit� augmente
Cyclone tropical intense
07.03.2004 � 00 UTC
L'intensit� diminue
D�pression sur terre
07.03.2004 � 01 UTC
L'intensit� diminue
Forte temp�te tropicale
08.03.2004 � 07 UTC
L'intensit� augmente
D�pression sur terre
09.03.2004 � 21 UTC
L'intensit� diminue
Zone perturb�e
13.03.2004 � 03 UTC
L'intensit� augmente
D�pression sub-tropicale
14.03.2004 � 06 UTC
L'intensit� diminue
D�pression se comblant
16.03.2004 � 06 UTC
L'intensit� diminue

Valeurs maximales

Valeurs maximales atteintes par GAFILO, le 06 mars 2004 � 12 UTC  
Intensité sur l'échelle de Dvorak (nombre Ci) 7,5-/8,0
Intensit� sur la classification�Australienne 5/5
Pression estim�e au centre 895 mb
Vent moyen sur 10 mn (donn�e M�t�o-France) 232 Km/h, 125 Kt
Vent moyen sur 1 mn (donn�e M�t�o-France) 269 Km/h, 145 Kt
Vent moyen sur 1 mn (donn�e JTWC) 259 Km/h, 140 Kt
Rafales 345 Km/h, 186 Kt
Vent moyen sur 1 mn (intensit� atteinte la plus probable) 278 Km/h, 150 Kt

Tableau des impacts sur les îles


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Îles
Distance et intensit� correspondante
Date
Alerte
D�tails
Tromelin 160 km au Nord, au stade de cyclone tropical intense (s'intensifiant) 05.03.2004 � 20 UTC Aucune
Madagascar Sur l'�le c�te Nord-Est, au stade de cyclone tropical tr�s intense (s'affaiblissant)

Sur l'�le c�te Sud-Ouest, au stade de forte temp�te tropicale (s'intensifiant)
07.03.2004 � 00:30 UTC

09.03.2004 � 21 UTC
Avis de danger imminent
Les Comores et Mayotte 430 km au Sud-Est de Mayotte, au stade de cyclone sur terre 07.03.2004 � 13 UTC -
Juan de Nova 150 km au Sud-Sud-Est, au stade de temp�te tropicale mod�r�e (stable) 08.03.2004 � 11 UTC Aucune Pas de d�tail

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Approche de Madagascar par GAFILO vue par l'imagerie micro-onde

Sur cette s�quence d�images issues de diff�rents satellites et couvrant une p�riode de 85 heures pr�c�dent l�arriv�e sur terre l�g�rement au nord du cap Est (pointe est de la Grande Ile). Le stade cyclonique est franchi peu apr�s l'image n�3. On appr�hende clairement le maximum d�intensit� du cyclone avec l'images SSMI n�6, avec un mur de l'oeil associ� � de la convection particuli�rement intense, mais aussi le processus de d�but de cycle de l'oeil qui est intervenu ensuite avant l�arriv�e sur Madagascar (images n�9, 10 & 11). Si cette amorce de cycle de l'oeil a contribu� � l�g�rement affaiblir la force des vents maximaux pr�sents au coeur du m�t�ore, il a par contre eu pour cons�quence d��tendre la zone de vents forts, avec la constitution d�un maximum secondaire de vents au niveau de l�anneau de convection externe venu se refermer autour de l'oeil interne.
Analyse de M�t�o-France R�union



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M�so-vortex dans l'oeil du cyclone GAFILO

Le 06 mars 2004 � 06:55 UTC.

Cette image haute r�solution (250 m) du satellite Terra permet d'acc�der avec une grande finesse aux d�tails de la structure interne de l'oeil et les nuages bas pr�sents � l'int�rieur. Elle montre l'existence, � ce moment-l�, de m�so-vortex au sein de l'oeil. Des structures polygonales de ce type sont r�guli�rement observ�es au coeur des cyclones tropicaux. Elles sont g�n�ralement le signe d'un ph�nom�ne en "bonne sant�" (i.e. maintenant son intensit� ou s'intensifiant), au sein duquel lib�ration de chaleur latente par la convection et vorticit� dans le mur de l'oeil sont bien en phase, procurant une production efficace de tourbillon potentiel. Quand le profil de vent devient de plus en plus pentu, cela g�n�re de l'instabilit� barotrope au niveau du mur de l'oeil, � l'origine de la formation de ces meso-vortex qui migrent ensuite dans l'oeil, en nombre plus ou moins grand. Une configuration � 3 ou 4 m�so-vortex est g�n�ralement associ�e � un mur de l'oeil relativement large, tandis que des murs de l'oeil plus �triqu�s (correspondant � des pics de vent plus aigus) produisent une instabilit� avec des nombres d'onde plus �lev�s (r�sultant en des structures hexagonales par exemple).

Analyse extraite de la revue "saison cyclonique 2012/2013" de M�t�o-France R�union.

Cliquez ici pour visualiser un autre article sur les m�so-vortex par Wikipedia

Conclusion

Le 29 f�vrier, une perturbation se forme au Sud de Diego Garcia.

Le 02 mars, bien que le centre ait �t� expos� en raison d'un vent cisaillant mod�r� d'Est, le Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) a �mis ce jour-l� une alerte de formation de cyclone tropical.

Le 03 mars, la contrainte en altitude s'efface, le centre se repositionne sous la convection, le syst�me s'intensifie rapidement en d�pression tropicale, puis une temp�te tropicale mod�r�e. Il est ainsi nomm� Gafilo par le Centre M�t�orologique de l'�le Maurice. Dans la m�me journ�e le stade de forte temp�te tropicale est atteint.

GAFILO ralentit sa vitesse de d�placement tout en se dirigeant vers l'Ouest-Nord-Ouest le long de la p�riph�rie Nord d'une cr�te subtropicale.

Bien que de l'air sec ait consid�rablement r�duit la convection profonde le 04 mars, MFR a class� GAFILO en cyclone tropical, il se dirige d�sormais vers l'Ouest-Sud-Ouest.

Le 05 mars, b�n�ficiant d'un double canal d'�vacuation en altitude (divergence), GAFILO s'intensifie rapidement et atteint la cat�gorie 4 sur l' �chelle Saffir-Simpson qui comporte 5 niveaux. Le stade de Cyclone Tropical Intense avec des vents moyens sur 1 min � 100 kt est atteint � 09 UTC.

Durant la journ�e du 06 mars, l'intensification se poursuit et va s'emballer. La temp�rature de la surface de l'oc�an affiche 29�C, et un troisi�me canal d'�vacuation en altitude (divergence) se mat�rialise. Les excellentes conditions environnementales permettent au m�t�ore de s'intensifier en cyclone tropical TR�S intense. L'oeil est tr�s bien d�fini, il est circulaire et chaud d'un diam�tre de 37 km � 06 UTC. Il atteint ainsi l'intensit� maximale de cat�gorie 5 sur l'�chelle Saffir-Simpson. Le pic d'intensit� est observ� � 12 UTC, avec des vents soutenus sur 1 minute atteignant 150 kt soit 280 km/h et la pression atmosph�rique en son centre est estim�e � 895 hPa. Dans le m�me temps, on d�tecte sur l'imagerie dite micro-ondes l'amorce d'un cycle de renouvellement du mur de l'oeil.

Le 07 mars, suite � l'interaction avec les terres Malgaches en approche et le processus du cycle de l'oeil, GAFILO s'affaiblit l�g�rement avant de toucher terre � 00 UTC, � proximit� de la ville d'Antalaha. Gafilo s'enfonce sur les terres Malgaches en orientant sa trajectoire vers le Sud-Ouest, le long de la p�riph�rie Nord-Ouest d'une cr�te subtropicale situ�e � son Sud-Est.

Le 08 mars � 06 UTC, GAFILO est centr� sur le Canal du Mozambique sous la forme d'une temp�te tropicale mod�r�e.

Le 09 mars, GAFILO est quasi stationnaire sur les eaux chaudes du Canal du Mozambique. MFR classe le m�t�ore en forte temp�te tropicale � 12 UTC. A 21 UTC, la forte temp�te touche � nouveau les terres Malgaches au Nord de Morombe.

GAFILO va rester 3 jours sur Madagascar en effectuant une boucle dans le sens des aiguilles d'une montre.

Apr�s 00 UTC, le 13 mars, le centre r�siduel de GAFILO retourne sur l'oc�an Indien en qualit� de perturbation tropicale.

Finalement le 14 mars, ex-GAFILO transite au Sud de l'�le de la R�union en d�pression subtropicale, en se d�pla�ant vers l'Est-Sud-Est.

Puis, le 16 mars � 12 UTC, suite � la construction d'une cr�te subtropicale (anticyclone) � son Sud-Ouest, la d�pression extratropicale ex-GAFILO ralentit et change de cap vers le Nord-Ouest.

Le syst�me se dissipe d�finitivement le 18 mars en zone tropicale.

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